CONVERGENCE
ANALYSIS
Hei friends nice to
meet you again. How are you today? Hope that you gonna be okay, right?
Now, I want to declare you an analysis taht must be so interesting to use in your research.. Errr.. what’s that? That’s convergence analysis.
Now, I want to declare you an analysis taht must be so interesting to use in your research.. Errr.. what’s that? That’s convergence analysis.
In fact, I use these
analysis in my essay in field Economics and Statistics and I think that it’s
not a problem to tell you about this analysis..
Okay, let’s go ,, Have a nice reading..
This, convergence
theory was begun from Solow Swan Model. What’s that? So, Solow Swan tried to
explain that the welfare of developed and developing countries will be
convergent someday. Yeah, its growth will meet in one spot. Futhermore, this
convergence theory also explains the situation of “catching up effect”.
Just wanna give you a
simple ilustration like this; someday the developing countries will succeed to
catch up or pursue the developed countries with asumption that the developed
countries will suffered a steady state condition. Then, their national income
(developed countries) won’t increase anymore because the increase of investment
won’t increase income.
Hmmm,, when the
developed countries are in steady state condition, while the developing
countries; their investment increase will influence their income. Automatically,
the developing countries economy will be able to chase and achieve the
developed ones. Yeah, that is the flow of thought what is called “catching up
effect”. Still puzzled? Just read again and try to brood hahaha..
Identification of whether the convergence will happen or
not; owing to Barro and Sala-i-Martin text books, this convergence can be
divided by sigma/gross convergence and
beta/unconditional beta convergence). Okay, I will try to explain that.. Just keep
calm hehe.. So, this gross convergence is used to observe the dispersion. Owing
to its focus (dispersion), we can do this analysis just by observing the
movement or pattern of your variables’ standard deviation.
I will show you the
example from my essay.. In this essay, I have the economic growth as its
dependent variable and I also use independent variables such as economic
openness, exchange rate, interest rate, inflation, the unemployment rate and
export value.
Then, I will generate
the Solow Swan flow thought of convergence to Indonesian level. And what the
result? I succeed to identify whether the low economic growth provinces (low GDP)
can catch up the high economic growth ones. For information, the time period of
my research is from 2006(1st Q) to 2011 (4th Q).
Notice this is the fluctuation
of economic growth (independent variable) standar deviation.
Keep attention for the
dispersion. . It’s so fluctuative.. Okay, this information merely inform that
the inter provinces economic growth is unstable yet. But, look, even its fluctuative
movement, we can see that the pattern of standard deviation tends to
decrease/diminish.. Can you get this phenomena?
Okay, this decreasing
pattern describes that there is still a chance to achieve the imbalance decrease. So, in the other
words, we say that there is still a chance for being convergent; the low
economic growth provinces (low GDP) will have a chance to chase the high
economic growth ones. Can this explanation help you? I hope it can and let’s go
on.
Now, we step to the
next analysis, it’s beta convergence. The calculation will be based on Barro
and Sala-i-Martin text books. The way to conduct, just regress the economic
growth in the initial research time period or the former period (independent
variable) with the economic growth in the research time period (dependent
variable).
The first way we can do
that we have to know what’s called “Absolute Convergence” then we can test the
conditional convergence. So, this is the model spesification for absolute
convergence:
a and b is the
intercept and slope with 0 < b < 1. The higher value for b, the higher it
tends to show convergence. (Barro and Martin, 2004).
In my essay, to analyze
the absolute convergence, I regress the ecocomic growth of 33 provinces (all
provinces in Indonesia until 2011) at –t quarter as the dependent variable and
the former economic growth of 33 provinces (distributed lag) as the independent
variable.
This is the the result
from Eviews (aproximation by common effect panel regression)
From this model we can explain
that: The coefficient of economic growth per province in Indonesia in the
former quarter is 0,2362 and it means that the increase/decrease for one
percent of former economic growth (33 provinces in Indonesia ) will
increase/decrease the economic growth in Indonesia for 0,2362%.
So lucky we are,, the
slope of independent variables (former economic growth) statistically is
negative to effect the dependent one with p-value is 0,0000 or less than Alpha
0,05.
The R square value is
0,059 that means 5,9 percent variation of economic growth
increase/decrease can be explained by
the former economic growth. It’s so small. Is not a problem??
Okay in this case, the
small R square can be permitted because the objective of my research is not to
make an estimation that really requires a high value of R square but I just
want to make an identification whether the convergence will happen or not)
based on the regression coefficient.
Heemm, the most important thing to understand that the independent
variable has significant statistically.
A liitle bit more, we
go to the way of how we can see the speed of convergence with given formula:
b can be gained from
the coefficient of independent variable and T is time period of research.
Wow, we can get the
speed of convergence, yeah it is 0,008835. This result indicates that the
provincial economic growth, mainly for the provinces with low economic
growth must grow minimally 0,8 percent
per period (in this case the period is quarter) for decreasing the dispersion
of economic growth.
Finally,
we can find what called “a half time”.. This term means the time that we need
to cover a half of the imbalance of economic growth.
From
Barro and Martin formula in their book “Economic Growth”, we use the formula:
What
does it sound? Here it is : “to cover a half of economic growth imbalance,
needed 78,4547 time period (quarter) that equals to 19,6137 years”. So, by
overall, to cover the whole of imbalance of economic growth, it’s needed for
about 39,2273 years in terms of condition, the provincial economic growth
(mainly for provinces of which the economic growth is low) must grow at leasy
0,8 percent per quarter.
Okay,
that’s what I can tell you about the convergence analysis hahaha.. Have a nice
time.. Hope that this post can be useful for you.. Nice greeting..
thanks excellent
BalasHapus